Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane
Activity and Landfall Strike Probability For 2011
We foresee an above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in
2011 and anticipate an above-average probability of U.S. and Caribbean major
hurricane landfall. This early seasonal forecast has less skill than our
forecasts issued closer to the start of the hurricane season.
(as of 8 December 2010)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray
This forecast as well as past forecasts and verifications are available
via the World Wide Web at
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu
Emily Wilmsen, Colorado State University Media Representative,
(
970-491-6432
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970-491-6432
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970-491-6432
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970-491-6432
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Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO 80523
Email:
amie@atmos.colostate.edu
Arago’s Admonition:
“Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest
scientific men who have regards for their reputations venture to predict the
weather.”
ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE
FORECAST FOR 2011
|
Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
Climatology (in parentheses)
|
8 December 2010
Forecast for 2011
|
|
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
|
17
|
|
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
|
85
|
|
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)
|
9
|
|
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)
|
40
|
|
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3)
|
5
|
|
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (5.0)
|
10
|
|
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)
|
165
|
|
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)
|
180
|
