GENEVA
(ILO News) – The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that
the global youth unemployment rate is expected to reach 13.1 per cent
in 2016 and remain at that level through
to 2017 (up from 12.9 per cent in 2015).
The
ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook 2016, Trends for Youth report shows that as a result, the global number of unemployed youth is set to rise by half a million this year to
reach 71 million (table 1) – the first such increase
in 3 years.
Of greater concern is the share and number of young people, often in
emerging and developing countries, who live in extreme or moderate
poverty despite having a job. In fact, 156 million or 37.7 per cent of
working youth are in extreme or moderate poverty (compared
to 26 per cent of working adults).
Table 1. Youth unemployment and working poverty trends and projections to 2017
Note:
The working poverty rate is defined as the share of employed population
in extreme or moderate poverty, i.e. with per capita income or
consumption of less than US$3.10 per day. Youth are defined as 15-24.
Source:
World Employment and Social Outlook 2016: Trends for Youth.
“The alarming rise in youth unemployment and the equally disturbing high
levels of young people who work but still live in poverty show how
difficult it will be to reach the global goal to end poverty by 2030
unless we redouble our efforts to achieve sustainable
economic growth and decent work. This research also highlights wide
disparities between young women and men in the labour market that need
to be addressed by ILO member States and the social partners urgently,”
said Deborah Greenfield, ILO Deputy Director-General
for Policy.
Unequal opportunities
Across
most labour market indicators, wide disparities exist between young
women and men, underpinning and giving rise to wider gaps during the
transition to adulthood. In 2016, for instance,
the labour force participation rate for young men stands at 53.9 per
cent compared to 37.3 per cent for young women – representing a gap of
16.6 percentage points.
The challenge is particularly acute in Southern Asia, the Arab States
and Northern Africa, where female youth participation rates are,
respectively, 32.9, 32.3 and 30.2 percentage points lower than those of
male youth in 2016.
Unemployment increases are driven by the slowdown in emerging economies
Global
economic growth in 2016 is estimated to stand at 3.2 per cent, 0.4
percentage points lower than the figure predicted in late 2015.
“This is driven by a deeper than expected recession in some key emerging
commodity-exporting countries and stagnating growth in some developed
countries,” said ILO Senior Economist and lead author of the report
Steven Tobin. ”The rise in youth unemployment
rates is particularly marked in emerging countries.”
In emerging countries, the unemployment rate is predicted to rise from
13.3 per cent in 2015 to 13.7 per cent in 2017 (a figure which
corresponds to 53.5 million unemployed in 2017 compared to 52.9 million
in 2015). In Latin America and the Caribbean, for example,
the unemployment rate is expected to increase from 15.7 per cent in
2015 to 17.1 per cent in 2017; in Central and Western Asia, from 16.6 to
17.5 per cent; in South Eastern Asia and the Pacific, from 12.4 to 13.6
per cent (table 2).
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Table 2. Youth unemployment trends and projections to 2017, by region
Source:
World Employment and Social Outlook 2016: Trends for Youth
The working poor
The
poor quality of employment continues to disproportionately affect
youth, albeit with considerable regional differences. For example, Sub-
Saharan Africa continues to suffer the highest
youth working poverty rates globally, at almost 70 per cent. Working
poverty rates among young people are also elevated in Arab States (39
per cent) and Southern Asia (49 per cent).
In developed economies, there is growing evidence of a shift in the age
distribution of poverty, with youth taking the place of the elderly as
the group at highest risk of poverty (defined for developed economies as
earning less than 60 per cent of the median
income). For instance, in 2014, the share of young workers in the EU-28
categorized as being at a high risk of poverty was 12.9 per cent
compared to 9.6 per cent of prime-age workers (aged 25–54). The
challenge is particularly acute in some countries where
the at-risk-of-poverty for young workers exceeds 20 per cent.
Willingness to migrate
Among
the many reasons to migrate (e.g. armed conflicts, natural disasters,
etc.) an elevated unemployment rate, increased susceptibility to working
poverty and a lack of good quality job opportunities
are key factors shaping young people’s decision to migrate abroad
permanently.
Globally, the share of young people between 15 and 29 years old who are
willing to move permanently to another country stood at 20 per cent in
2015. The highest inclination to move abroad, at 38 per cent, is found
in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and
the Caribbean, followed closely by Eastern Europe at 37 per cent.
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